If you don't have strong non-academic or non-technical achievements, your chances will be slim at HBS, Wharton or Stanford. From what you wrote, your profile seems to be heavily analytical - I don't see any substantive leadership oriented achievements. These schools really aren't looking for quant folks; they're focused on leadership and non-academic talents (of course all top schools want this, but these three schools can simply be more picky because there's far more analytically-oriented applicants than there are folks with substantive non-analytical accomplishments).
Schools like Columbia, Chicago and Kellogg are more in your range. As for GMAT score, it will help a little if your score was 40+ points higher, but even then it's incremental. Your challenge is to show the adcoms at these schools that you are just as good with people as you are with numbers.
As for MIT, your chances will be slim simply because you missed their R1 deadline - they only have 2 rounds. As for the other schools, there's really no difference between Rounds 1 and 2.
Keep in mind that MBA programs aren't technical degrees - they are general management degrees at its core (even at schools that have a reputation for certain functions like finance). In other words, the "B average jock" has a better shot compared to the "A average math whiz".
Alex Chu
alex@mbaapply.com
www.mbaapply.com
http://mbaapply.blogspot.com