Sonya: The government of Copeland is raising the cigarette tax. Copeland’s cigarette prices will still be reasonably low, so cigarette consumption will probably not be affected much. Consequently, government revenue from the tax will increase.

Raoul: True, smoking is unlikely to decrease, because Copeland’s cigarette prices will still not be high. They will, however, no longer be the lowest in the region, so we might begin to see substantial illegal sales of smuggled cigarettes in Copeland.

Raoul responds to Sonya’s argument by doing which of the following?

A: Questioning the support for Sonya’s conclusion by distinguishing carefully between No change and no decrease

B: calling Sonya’s conclusion into question by pointing to a possible effect of a certain change.

C: Arguing that Sonya’s conclusion would be better supported if Sonya could cite a precedent for what she predicts will happen.

D: showing that a cause that Sonya claims will be producing a certain effect is not the only cause that could produce that effect

E: pointing out that a certain initiative is not bold enough to have the predicts it will have

Here I think in B, the "change" refers to the tax increase, while the "conclusion" refers to the prediction that government revenue will increase.

Yet in E, I believe the "initiative" refers to the tax increase as well, while the "predicts" (I'm also confused why it's used as a noun here) refers to the same thing that the "conclusion" in B does.

So, what's the real difference between B and E?

wow, this looks like an lsat question.

there are definitely some words missing from choice e, which, presumably, is meant to say something along the lines of '...enough to have the effects she predicts it will have'.

the problem with choice e is the 'not bold enough' part. that's a big issue, because 'not bold enough' means that the initiative must be bolder: i.e., that the government should raise the cigarette tax even more than they propose to do. but that doesn't make any sense, because a bolder initiative would be much less likely to have the effects that sonya predicts. remember, sonya's prediction is that there will be NO effect; clearly, the bolder the initative, the less likely that is to be the case.

Thank you very much Ron! I misunderstood 'not bold enough' as something like 'not effective enough'... Anyway, your explanation is very clear.

Nice work.