With the financial sector the way it is and people (smart, capable, and experienced) being displaced from their Wall Street jobs, it is probably likely that there is going to an increase in the number of applicants this year. I read somewhere that the rise in the number of GMAT test takers is due mostly to foreigners (they still create plenty of competition, if not more, in my mind) so we are not actually seeing a tidal wave of IB and PE analysts taking the GMAT...yet. However, it is quite possible that a lot of these people have already taken the GMAT in the past, right?

Has anyone heard or seen a noticeable (anyone meaning you guys at MGMAT who provide admissions counseling) upward trend in people preparing to apply to B-schools this fall? My theory is that those who have been recently displaced from their job are probably still studying for the GMAT and so we will soon see a noticeable increase in the number of domestic test takers in the next month or two (just my theory, not based on any facts whatsoever).

1) Does this mean that we are going to have a super-completive year?

OR

2) Will schools just accept more students to "make up" for the decrease in the number of enrollments for the past couple of years (Again, I 'm not sure it's actually true that there has been a decrease. It' just something I've read on a blog somewhere)?


I have a 640 GMAT, 3.3GPA from a top 20 school with a degree in business, did management consulting and financial consulting for 3.5 years, which have been good feeder companies to top 15 schools. I'm pretty typical up to this point, but I have done some "unique" volunteer work in Africa and also worked with non-profits (not just in the past 3 months to beef up my app, but have been doing so for the past couple of years). Do I stand a chance against a 720 GMATer who's worked at a top Wall St firm and graduated from a top IVY with a 3.8 GPA? Obviously, there's more to an applicant than just numbers, but I'm trying to get a realistic sense of where I should devote my time when it comes to app time so that I can maximize my potential of getting into the best program I can.

Target Schools:

1) MIT (wish list)
2) NYU (still a wish list)
3) Hass/Stanford (will do one or the other- but still a wish list)
3) Duke (I MIGHT have a shot?). I am extremely attracted their social entrepreneurship program. It's my #1 choice.
4) UT-Austin (fair chance?)
5) UNC (fair chance?)

Extra) Georgetown (may or may not do, but thinking about it)

So all in all, 5 schools on my list.

Do I need to rethink where I should apply?

Retaking GMAT in 2 weeks. Aiming for 700 (been getting anywhere from 620-700 on MGMAT CAT and PowerPrep).

Yes, it will be a very competitive season this year - not necessarily by volume (although it will increase), but by quality. A good number of the young folks who normally wouldn't apply to b-school at all in good times will more than likely apply to b-school when they see their job options dry up. These include the IB//PE types or the consultants who opt to forgo b-school, amongst others. On top of that, the slew of engineers from around the world will continue to apply in droves.

In short, applications tend to be strongest at the tail end of a boom or early part of a downturn, and reach a low point at the end of a downturn or beginning of a recovery. This year would qualify as the early stages of a downturn. Depending on how long this "downturn" lasts (which in my view is more about the world adjusting to the permanent reality of higher energy/commodity prices and a weaker US dollar), applications will peak this year and maybe next, and then decline for a year or two before hitting a low in 2010 or 2011 before gradually picking up again. This is all conjecture of course, but from a practical perspective for you, just be prepared that this will be super-competitive year.

As for your schools, you seem to have chosen a good range that hedges your bets - still, you need to make sure your GMAT is competitive (700+) for these schools, or you will really handicap your chances.

Alex Chu
alex@mbaapply.com
www.mbaapply.com
http://mbaapply.blogspot.com